強辯、律師、黑社會犯案

我應該接近一年沒在交誼廳看電視

早上NBA playoff G3 Houston Rockets

houston 這樣打會贏才有鬼

但是這場就是贏了

但這樣打一樣走不久的

看完轉播快一點吧 轉到TVBS

蘇貞昌馬英九會面談林義雄核四公投問題

http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PublicIssue/M.1398396633.A.5EB.html

看了蘇貞昌的表現

大概是我看過最糟糕的政客了

太多次他邏輯不通被馬英九還是吳敦義抓到之後就要很難看的耍賴

吳敦義原本口才就極好  但我沒想到馬英九也進步這麼多

不管大方向的對錯

我看到這種對打我就希望best vs best

 

O.J Simpson 的明星隊律師用法官、陪審團沒辦法思考conditional probability

和種族情緒讓他殺人有罪變成無罪開脫

當然在FBR、Calculated Risk、The Drunkard’s Walk 等書

或是Munger一定都唾棄這種方式

但我覺得如果是魔鬼代言人就是要做到極致

 

投機客養成教育講的 Willie Sutton 從青少年就開始練習的搶銀行規劃

Bourdain 最大興趣之一是讀黑社會犯案記錄跟他們的錄音

我一直覺得很可惜  台灣我沒看過這種

例如顏清標如果願意寫完整自傳

http://www.ptt.cc/man/PoliticLaw/DCBF/DCDC/D3C3/D5FB/M.1129389352.A.3BC.html

他當年如何崛起、和美國博仔的對抗等等

一定非常精采

 

台灣文學

不是我不愛

我根本沒動力去看

垃圾流行作家更是遍佈

一些什麼鄉土文學的也是

如果說我有偏見看不起自己人

是從李敖開始被灌輸的概念

台灣文人沒guts

川康端成派  難看

好好先生派

PLP派

一堆盲目環保反核派

純感覺派

思鄉情愁派

新鴛鴦蝴蝶派

小確幸派

 

這李敖寫過

中國文革傷痛文學派

 

鄧小平評:哭哭啼啼,沒有出息。

Niederhoffer 也寫到美國股市老師派別

星象占卜派

 

整天說1929崩盤派

購物中心停車場都沒人  顯示出市場消費委靡

已經兩年沒讀書

—-

20140416

如果說我跟很多人一樣

純粹瞧不起自己國家或自己族群的人

相對剝奪感

那但是為什麼我就很愛國內電影蔡明亮侯孝賢?

台灣樂團更不說

好幾個都是世界頂尖水準

Re-education of Victor Niederhoffer

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?page_id=2

按一下以存取 REEDUCATION.pdf

這篇文章看到一年 今天終於讀完

第六頁可以看到Niederhoffer後來操作

缺點仍然是會受到大波動而虧損

讀完也可以些微了解為啥NNT後來算是有點唾棄 Niederhoffer 

總覺得他的概念有缺陷

 

我對古董貝殼完全沒興趣

也覺得他的房子豪華

我覺得太過奢華

 

這種基金一樣我覺得很厭惡

固定收1~3%資產費用  若有獲利再分20%

太吃人了

Do We Have Any Predictions, from Victor Niederhoffer

Do we have any predictions of the path of S&P in the next 5 days… based on the past 16 years, looking at the most similar moves over the last two days, I see Monday up. But perhaps a terrible decline along the road.

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=9032

想到Niederhoffer上週的文章

短期來看  被他說中

極為正確

再來看久一點的情況

 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb vs Victor Niederhoffer

 ·  · 分享 · 1月29日 19:35 ·
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb It is not guidelines on how to post, rather how NOT to post
  •  
  • David Boxenhorn Shorter version: Don’t waste my time.
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb David Boxenhorn don’t waste the time of others…
  • John Egan NNT- I had no idea this was your principal access to the web. I often wondered if and sometimes how you sifted through the often numerous comments in these discussions.
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb John Egan Somehow if a topic is interesting to my work it would be eventually linked on the “Recent Post by Others", often independently by >2 people.
  • Chenyen Lee NNT you and Victor Niederhoffer are my idols.
    After reading Blowup collected in What the Dog saw and your recently paper Four Points Beginner Risk Managers Should Learn from Jeff Holman’s Mistakes in the Discussion of Antifragile, I do not read other articles about you two. So I’m quite surprisely found you name him one of your enemy now.
    Could you indicate fans like me where could I read more details or could you share with us ?
  • David Rochholz Chenyen Lee: search for gladwell blowing up. Sean Connery…
  • 1月30日 0:46 ·  · 1
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb What has infuriated me in the past is having to reexplain a version of the concept that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, which I thought that by writing a 2200 page INCERTO I would no longer have to do… on this very page.
    1月30日 1:25 ·  · 4
  • Walter Marsh Great!
    1月30日 1:30 ·  · 1
  • Chenyen Lee David Rochholzthank you,but I’ve stated that I already read it before. I would like to know what I have missed.
    1月30日 3:29 ·  · 1
  • David Rochholz I’m sorry for not reading your post careful enough.
    But isn’t it clear after reading Blowing Up? Their relationship does neither sound like a respectful disagreement nor like a one sided admiration. Their disagreement is elemental. Maybe it’s to hasty but I feel like I can put the rest together in my mind.
  • Chenyen Lee David Rochholz,I reread Blowing Up again,http://gladwell.com/blowing-up/, the last three paragraph. .. I was talking to my hero . . .” I do not think NNT would take his hero Niederhoffer as enemy from this article. I just wonder what I’ve missed.
  • Ban Kanj Rereading it..just noticed Nicholas square in the title..what happened to Nassim? (dropbox copy).
  • Mkm Abdul The biggest hurdle to the uptake of these guidelines is FB’s crappy search capabilities.
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb Chenyen Lee some subsequent events happened after that that made him less than the upright person I thought he was, and less than the hero…
  • David Rochholz Just a thought I had this morning.
    Aren’t heroes prone to black swans? Just one detail you’ve never seen can destroy how you look at the person that is your hero.
    Wouldn’t the right consequence be to have no heroes? The concept of resepect sounds a little bit more robust than having a hero.
    我看這google doc注意到一點Note that I have a few enemies, particularly in the finance community (after my thing with Victor Niederhoffer whom I mistakenly called “gentleman" in Fooled by Randomness);我已經有點不確定我的閱讀順序

    TBS->FBR , 跟TEOAS ,  

    但Niederhoffer跟NNT的網頁算是我少數會主動去看的地方 ,

    而在FBR、Blowing Up後 再來就是  Four Points Beginner Risk Managers Should Learn from Jeff Holman’s Mistakes in the Discussion of Antifragile 

    其他地方也沒讀過兩人的關係了

    雖然從現在的眼光和結果論

    NNT的境界和成功已經遠高於Niederhoffer

    但當然我們要學著(NNT當然更不會)不以成敗論英雄

    所以我很訝異NNT把Niederhoffer當敵人,也說他錯誤把他稱為紳士

    所以我猜測有什麼事情是外人不知

    或是我漏掉

    結果NNT回應,確實是這樣

    他也不細講  所以也沒啥好追問的了

    很多單憑信念、堅持到底的事

    如果要詳細討論或後世評價  是對是錯都還不定
    上週讀到的 小野田寬郎
    諸葛孔明北伐
    沒勝算還是硬幹
    精神沒話講
    但是不是讓士兵人民白死?
    蜀國的差不多都是
    反而是劉禪早點不抵抗才是對的
    (瑞士?)
    文天祥
    小拳王
    灌籃高手湘北隊
    李敖所謂的 明知不可為而為之

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 股票作手回憶錄

Cruel to be Kind, from Victor Niederhoffer January 3, 2014 |

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8959

History Lessons for Investors

An annotated reissue of Edwin LeFevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is reviewed by hedge-fund manager and author Victor Niederhoffer.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904582604575578673699397824.html#articleTabs_article%3D1

本益比爭論 Debating on P/E ratio and Return

今早看Taleb的FB下面其他人回才知道Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller得諾貝爾獎

相對於Fama主要我只在書上讀到他研究的貢獻

Shiller因為他的非理性繁榮跟Niederhoffer對他的批評讓我留下較深印象

 

原本我知道Fama一直更新maintain他的small Cap , P/E 比和一般股票的報酬率比較

這次查wiki 也才知道Shiller也有 http://www.multpl.com/

 

Niederhoffer在Practical Speculation和他網站的文章

3/17/2005 Dr. Niederhoffer Visits the UPenn Bookstore

12/14/2005 P/Es and Returns, by Victor Niederhoffer

不斷的批評Jeremy Siegel、Schiller使用P/E

繼續閱讀

The Science of Fear , Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, Dan Gardner, 販賣恐懼

之前看Niederhoffer寫的書評 也順便繼續批評Daniel Kahneman

其實我買之前有先研究

剛讀完前言The Science of Fear前言 : 1,595

怎麼這麼熟悉的感覺

再查一次   這是同一本書阿!

哇靠

 

颱風停班 延後結算

昨天美股沒動靜 正常今天台股也是沒啥動靜

8月(週)選擇權結算一樣歸零

結果今天颱風停班 延後結算

如果世界股市在今天有變動就好玩了

給價外買賣權者多一天機會

我想到Niederhoffer在投機客養成教育裡面提的

他跟叔叔的棒球賽陰雨延賽  30年後紐約突來的大雨證交所淹水停止交易三天

讓他慘賠

遠離第4象限 黑天鵝領域 勿在重要的事情上欺騙自己 the fourth quadrant

Taleb 在 Fooled By Randomness 前面講到有一次他前一天交易賺錢

隔天他不知不覺穿戴同樣衣服

請計程車特別繞跟昨天一樣的路線上班

他做完之後才驚覺自己居然這樣做

他每天都在談論科學、隨機性等等概念但自己卻做了這種迷信的事

很羞愧自己居然是平常高談闊論但做的卻是另一套的人

繼續閱讀

How Not to do a Study, from Phil McDonnell , Victor Niederhoffer

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8200

Victor Niederhoffer adds:

Always simulate what the chances were that your observed results were due to pure luck and take into account the path that your results would take and what that would have required of money management.

繼續閱讀

What the Dog Saw : Nassim Nicholas Taleb vs Victor Niederhoffer

2011/05/10

大開眼界:葛拉威爾的奇想

Gladwell這位專欄作家

我是從異數這本書開始往為看到引爆趨勢

兩本都很精采  尤其是異數

特別是針對時勢造英雄這點

為啥Steve Jobs、Bill Gates、等等好幾位科技巨擘都相差沒幾歲?

因為就是當時的時勢!

繼續閱讀

勞退基金 政府 金融市場危機

昨天談到勞保基金一次領跟月領問題

讓我想到

以前看報導

在那邊計算以這個進度

勞退基金在10X年,201X年之後就會破產倒閉

然後有人就推斷這樣很危險

早點一次領好

 

http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1355834470.A.15A.html

系列《Stock》

12/18 taco0827     □ [請益] 領配息的績優股?

 

也讓我回想到剛剛查是在What the Dog Saw 大開眼界看到

Taleb vs Niederhoffer

俄國政府還不出公債的錢

市場像發瘋一樣

才幾星期LTCM就倒了

俄國政府不償還公債

是做了不該做的事

是破壞性事件

但這正是Taleb所主張

金融市場不是具體的世界

遊戲規則是可以改變的

 

所以我不擔心勞保付不出錢

政府可以自己修改規定

到時一定超多方法從其他地方轉錢過來

勞保付不出錢對我來講幾乎快跟軍公教薪水發不出來一樣

起碼政府隨便找個項目加稅借錢

倒的機會實在太小

起碼跟把錢放在 中華電、中鋼、台塑還要安全多