Do we have any predictions of the path of S&P in the next 5 days… based on the past 16 years, looking at the most similar moves over the last two days, I see Monday up. But perhaps a terrible decline along the road.
Chenyen Lee NNT you and Victor Niederhoffer are my idols.
After reading Blowup collected in What the Dog saw and your recently paper Four Points Beginner Risk Managers Should Learn from Jeff Holman’s Mistakes in the Discussion of Antifragile, I do not read other articles about you two. So I’m quite surprisely found you name him one of your enemy now.
Could you indicate fans like me where could I read more details or could you share with us ?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb What has infuriated me in the past is having to reexplain a version of the concept that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, which I thought that by writing a 2200 page INCERTO I would no longer have to do… on this very page.
David Rochholz I’m sorry for not reading your post careful enough.
But isn’t it clear after reading Blowing Up? Their relationship does neither sound like a respectful disagreement nor like a one sided admiration. Their disagreement is elemental. Maybe it’s to hasty but I feel like I can put the rest together in my mind.
Chenyen Lee David Rochholz,I reread Blowing Up again,http://gladwell.com/blowing-up/, the last three paragraph. .. I was talking to my hero . . .” I do not think NNT would take his hero Niederhoffer as enemy from this article. I just wonder what I’ve missed.
David Rochholz Just a thought I had this morning.
Aren’t heroes prone to black swans? Just one detail you’ve never seen can destroy how you look at the person that is your hero.
Wouldn’t the right consequence be to have no heroes? The concept of resepect sounds a little bit more robust than having a hero.
我看這google doc注意到一點Note that I have a few enemies, particularly in the finance community (after my thing with Victor Niederhoffer whom I mistakenly called “gentleman" in Fooled by Randomness);我已經有點不確定我的閱讀順序
TBS->FBR , 跟TEOAS ,
而在FBR、Blowing Up後 再來就是 Four Points Beginner Risk Managers Should Learn from Jeff Holman’s Mistakes in the Discussion of Antifragile
Always simulate what the chances were that your observed results were due to pure luck and take into account the path that your results would take and what that would have required of money management.