Nuclear Energy , Planning for the Black Swan 核能，防範黑天鵝

2013/04/12

查核能安全時候從wikipedia看到wiki也在裡頭寫了Black Swan Event

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_safety#Black_Swan_events

來源是 Adam Piore (June 2011). Nuclear energy: Planning for the Black Swan, Scientific American, p. 32

找了原文來讀

很久沒找科學文獻  這篇也拖了兩三個禮拜才在剛剛看完

基本上我不看近來的擁核、反核文章（除了好友FB轉貼時好奇點進去，這也告訴我要減少使用FB）

反核太多義和團式、無腦、無限上綱、想靠著無知就是力量的反對

看這些純粹浪費時間

擁核的文章  沒人寫如何面對黑天鵝事件

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文章前面在講新式reator：AP1000、EPR等等強調的passive safty 被動式安全

這個是defense in depth的點

但不是什麼新點

Black Swan events are highly unlikely occurrences that have big repercussions. Despite planning, nuclear power will always be vulnerable to black swan events:^[92]

A rare event – especially one that has never occurred – is difficult to foresee, expensive to plan for and easy to discount with statistics. Just because something is only supposed to happen every 10,000 years does not mean that it will not happen tomorrow.^[92] Over the typical 40-year life of a plant, assumptions can also change, as they did on September 11, 2001, in August 2005 when Hurricane Katrina struck, and in March, 2011, after Fukushima.^[92]

The list of potential black swan events is “damningly diverse":^[92]

Nuclear reactors and their spent-fuel pools could be targets for terrorists piloting hijacked planes. Reactors may be situated downstream from dams that, should they ever burst, could unleash massive floods. Some reactors are located close to earthquake faults or shorelines, a dangerous scenario like that which emerged at Three Mile Island and Fukushima – a catastrophic coolant failure, the overheating and melting of the radioactive fuel rods, and a release of radioactive material.^[92]

這兩段是文章重點

但還有重點一段  福島電廠原是設計耐8.2級地震，9級地震都還在其safty margin

但電廠原來設計防海嘯是18.7 feets，但這次海嘯是46feets高

但這之前有發生過 在公元869年有相當程度的地震海嘯

NRC稱這種計算疏失在美國較不會發生

NRC要電廠提供證明電廠能防過去過去資料所知的最大的水災、海嘯、地震

在加上safty margin

地震的資料是取過去一萬年

safty margin可以提供防範1.5到2倍大的衝擊

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2013/04/14

reply to Roberto

notebook 142 我有讀過相似的報導也寫了心得

https://flied.wordpress.com/2012/04/17/must-read-nassim-taleb-on-the-earth-quake-in-japan/

notebook 143 is still too technical for me now, so I skip it.